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PULSE
PULSE
PULSE

01

Editions

Read an assessment and check its sources.

Start with the judgement, inspect its time horizon and confidence, then follow the evidence. The example below is a fictional reading guide.

Illustrative sample. Every place, event, judgement and source below is fictional. It is not operational intelligence.

Illustrative sample · no protective marking applied

Vital intelligence

Harbour district watch

Harbour district watch

Information cut-off: 6 Nov 2026, 07:00 UTC · Weekly example · Not a released assessment

Disruption to road access is likely in the next week, affecting scheduled deliveries. Planned works are the principal driver.

Likely · 1 WEEK · anchor: 13 Nov 2026

Moderate confidence. Illustrative sources S1 and S2 describe planned works and delivery constraints. Neither source is a real publication.

The four horizons are fixed: now (to cut-off +24 hours), one week, one month or more, and up to one year. Dates are anchored to the stated cut-off.

Event

Probability

Horizon

Anchor date

Confidence

Restricted road access

Event: Restricted road access

Unlikely

Probability: Unlikely

NOW

Horizon: NOW

7 Nov 2026

Anchor: 7 Nov 2026

Moderate

Confidence: Moderate

Disruption to road deliveries

Event: Disruption to road deliveries

Likely

Probability: Likely

1 WEEK

Horizon: 1 WEEK

13 Nov 2026

Anchor: 13 Nov 2026

Moderate

Confidence: Moderate

Change to the ferry timetable

Event: Change to the ferry timetable

No basis for a forecast

Probability: No basis for a forecast

1 MONTH +

Horizon: 1 MONTH +

6 Dec 2026

Anchor: 6 Dec 2026

Not assigned

Confidence: Not assigned

Completion of harbour works

Event: Completion of harbour works

No basis for a forecast

Probability: No basis for a forecast

UP TO 1 YEAR

Horizon: UP TO 1 YEAR

6 Nov 2027

Anchor: 6 Nov 2027

Not assigned

Confidence: Not assigned

Sources supporting the judgement

S1 · Illustrative works notice
A fictional notice describes planned restrictions on an access road during the week after the cut-off.

S2 · Illustrative operator statement
A fictional operator statement describes delivery constraints. It supports the example consequence, not an independent real-world finding.

Example limitation: the duration of restrictions is uncertain. The supplied example sources do not support the one-month or one-year forecasts; both remain unassessed.

End of illustrative sample · not for operational use

02

Reading probability

How to read the probability bands

The seven probability bands describe likelihood. Confidence, threat level and handling are recorded separately.

Remote chance

Highly unlikely

Unlikely

Realistic possibility

Likely or probable

Highly likely

Almost certain

03

Distinct concepts

Probability, confidence and threat are different.

Probability describes likelihood. Confidence describes the strength and limits of the assessment. Threat level is a separate judgement on the named scale.

Keep the probability band beside its horizon. Read confidence with the stated evidence limitations. Never turn one of these labels into a score for another.

Discuss the area you need to assess.

Tell AIC which area you monitor and the decision you need to support. The briefing covers review, handling and delivery requirements.